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What Caused Continental Flight 3407 to Crash?

Did Rim Ice Contribute to the Colgan Air Buffalo Accident?

© Frank W. Hardy

Feb 13, 2009
PSA 182 Crash into Neighborhood, Hans Wendt
Ice accumulation on flight controls cause many airline accidents. Buffalo's wx. conditions had other airline pilots concerned during their approaches before the accident.

There are many factors that cause aircraft to crash; however, the crash of Continental Connection Flight 3407 from Newark, New Jersey to Buffalo, New York has familiar indicators. The wreckage is still smoldering but experienced examiners understand the accident could be attributed to one (or a combination of) 15 factors.

The facts are straight forward. Continental Connection Flight 3407, operated by Colgan Airlines, crashed into the Buffalo suburb of Clarence Center, New York and killed 50 people. Without indications from the flight crew, the aircraft fell nearly 1500 feet,** impacting the ground at a steep angle. From the time the crew made its last radio transmission to ATC (air traffic control) and the time ATC attempted to call the aircraft (after it disappeared from radar) was 54 seconds.* This is all the verifiable data the public was given by Dave Bissonette, Clarence Center's natural disaster services coordinator at a 4 AM local time news conference broadcast on VOA, as well as information gathered from video broadcasts and ATC data tapes.

When caused this accident? What would make an airplane dive toward the ground?

15 Factors

  1. Un-commanded Flight Control Input – caused American Airlines Flight 587 to crash on 12/12/2001 in Belle Harbor, Queens, New York.
  2. Rudder Hard-Over – caused US Airway Flight 427 to crash on 9/8/1994 in Hopewell, Pennsylvania (a Pittsburgh suburb.)
  3. Run-Away Prop/Asymmetrical Thrust Reverser Deployment – caused Lake Central Airlines Flight 527 to crash on 3/5/1967 in Marseilles, Ohio.
  4. Engine Failure – was the cause of Aeroflot-Nord Flight 821’s crash on 9/14/2008 in the city of Perm, Russia.
  5. Failure of Primary and Secondary Attitude Instruments – caused by fire was the reason Swiss Air Flight 111 crashed into St. Margaret’s Bay, Nova Scotia near Halifax on September 2nd, 1998.
  6. Pitot Static System Failure – was behind the crash of Aero Peru’s Flight 603 into the ocean off the coast of Lima, Peru on 10/2/1996.
  7. Structural Failure – caused China Airlines Flight 611 to crash 5/25/2002 near Penghu Island and Changhua, Taiwan.
  8. Hazmat Interference – caused the fire that plunged ValuJet Flight 592 into the Florida everglades near Miami on 5/11/1996.
  9. Localized Microburst – was the cause of Delta Flight 191’s crash on 8/2/1985 near the Dallas Ft. Worth Airport, Texas.
  10. Vertigo - Flash Airlines Flight 604 crashed on 1/3/2004 in the Red Sea near Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt because of the Captain’s vertigo.
  11. Mid Air Collision – was the cause of PSA Flight 182’s crash 9/28/1978 into North Park, California (a San Diego neighborhood.)
  12. Terrorism – was behind the crash of Pan Am Flight 103 on December 21st, 1988 in Lockerbie, Scotland.
  13. Crew Fatigue – caused American International Airways Flight 808 to crash on 8/18/1993 in Leeward Point Airfield at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
  14. Situational Awareness (SA) – Gulf Air Flight 072 dove head first into the Persian Gulf due to the crew’s loss of SA on 8/23/2000.

The meteorological conditions prior to, at the time of and after the accident, were not significant; however, ATC data points a strong finger at #15 - Ice Accumulation on Control Surfaces. ATC tapes reveal the actual weather conditions and pilots' complaints about ice accumulation. Delta Flight 1998 reported icing “…from 6500 to 3500 [feet.]” US Airways 1452 said “were picking up rim ice here for a while.” Flight 920 said, “…we’d like to request a continuous climb for icing.” Delta 1998 continued, “Were still in the ice here at 2300…we have about a half...quarter inch from the decent.” Cactus 1452 reported later, “We’ve been picking up rim ice for oh the last 10 minutes” until the pilot pleaded with the controller, “…as soon as you can sir, we’ve been getting ice since 20 miles south of the airport.”

Ice was a significant weather factor in the Buffalo area and ice has been the cause of other high-wing turboprop accidents. American Eagle Flight 4184 on October 31, 1994 crashed into a field at Roselawn, Indiana from ice on top of the wing.

* Source: Audio quotes from live FAA transmissions archived for KBUF on Feb 13th 2009 from 0300Z to 0330Z UTC. Downloadable file held until 15 March 2009 at http://www.liveatc.net/archive.php

** The last cleared altitude was 2300 ft (1572 ft above the ground since KBUF is 728 ft MSL) as per the tapes.


The copyright of the article What Caused Continental Flight 3407 to Crash? in Aviation is owned by Frank W. Hardy. Permission to republish What Caused Continental Flight 3407 to Crash? in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.


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